19 January 2014

Royal Rumble 2014: The Betting Lines

 photo royalrumble_zps87fa61af.jpg
Each year I do this blog, predicting the Royal Rumble winner and each year I get pretty damn close to being correct. 3 years ago, I predicted that Alberto Del Rio had one of the highest chances of winning amongst non-main-eventers and he did. Two years ago, I predicted Sheamus as the outright winner and he won. Last year, while I didn't pick John Cena as the winner, I did surmise that the winner would be a SUPERFACE who had won it before. Only I thought that SUPERFACE would be Randy Orton. And to be fair, I gave Cena the second-highest chance at winning, so I knew he was a possibility.

This year, I am flummoxed. I can't imagine who might win or who is the favorite. I can barely even think of the rules for the year. Here's what I can tell. First, it will not be a SUPERFACE. Cena & Orton are mixing it up in the WWE World Championship rematch. Neither of them will be in the Royal Rumble. Sheamus is out of action. There's a chance he might return at the Rumble, but not to win it. WWE can't continue that cliche'. Plus, I think they lost some confidence in Sheamus last year.

If you believe, as I do, that Randy Orton will hold the WWE World Title through Wrestlemania XXX, then the winner of the Royal Rumble match has to be a babyface. That leaves two viable candidates in my mind to win, but I've been wrong before.


100:1
If any of these guys win, I'll sell my first-born. Half of 'em won't even participate.

Camacho
Curt Hawkins
David Otunga
Drew McIntyre
Epico/Fernando
Ezekiel Jackson
Evan Bourne
Heath Slater
Jinder Mahal
JTG
Justin Gabriel
Primo/Diego
Ricardo Rodriguez
Santino Marella
Tensai/Sweet T
Tyson Kidd
Xavier Woods
Yoshi Tatsu
Zack Ryder


75:1
No chance of winning whatsoever, but not jobbers. Will most likely serve as elimination cogs for more important superstars.

Brodus Clay - The self-proclaimed 'Main-Event Player' will be looking to make a name for himself in the Royal Rumble. He'll most likely tangle with his former Tons of Funk tag parter, Tensai, and probably eliminate him. But that's about the only thing this new heel will do. But he'll be pushed a BIG THREAT to win, like all BIG MEN are.

Curtis Axel - WWE hasn't given up on him yet. His Royal Rumble outlook isn't glamorous. I strongly doubt he'll do anything of any value. He'll just have that stupid look that's always on his face, otherwise known as his face, as he's inevitably eliminated.

Darren Young - After the news of him being gay came out, I thought for sure WWE would push him to the moon in an effort to appear gay-friendly. There was only a short push and then he went right back into being the lesser of the Prime Time Players duo. He'll do nothing of any circumstance in the Royal Rumble, if he's even in it.

Erick Rowan - Speaking of the lesser of duos, Rowan hasn't impressed near as much as Luke Harper has. He's known for nothing more than wearing the sheep mask and nothing will change after the Royal Rumble.

Fandango - Dancing skills don't win Royal Rumble matches. And if they did, Fandango still wouldn't be a threat to win. He'll probably eat up more time in the contest than anyone else in this bracket, but winning is not an option.

Goldust - It hurt me to put Goldust in this bracket. After everything he's done this past year, he deserves to be of higher standings. But he isn't. The Tag Team Title he holds right now is his ceiling. And that ceiling is about to come crashing down when The Brotherhood breaks up in time for Wrestlemania.

The Great Khali - It also hurt me to put Khali in this bracket instead the one above. You can never discount the allure of the BIG MAN in WWE. Thankfully, you can eliminate him from contention of winning. There's no coming back from being eliminated by a diva.

Hunico/Sin Cara - I thought about placing the new, arguably-improved Sin Cara in a higher bracket, but then I realized that even with Hunico taking over, Sin Cara is still a cruiserweight. WWE isn't going to push any cruiserweight. He'll eat up some time in the match, probably do something amazing in the process, but his outlook is limited.

Luke Harper - Being the better of the Wyatt Family team doesn't inspire a Royal Rumble victory. If anything, he'll be conducive to Bray Wyatt becoming more of a threat to win instead of helping himself.

R-Truth - I expect for the ongoing saga of Truth/Woods vs Clay to continue in the early entrants of the match. Woods & Truth might come together to eliminate Brodus, but that's about all they will do. Their own eliminations should follow shortly.

The Usos - I give them all the credit in the world for working their way up in the tag team ranks to make a name for themselves. I think they will be stars in the loaded tag team division for years to come. They should even hold the Tag Team Titles sometime in 2014. But the Royal Rumble isn't for tag teams.


50:1
Definite long-shots to be sure, but they will stick around long enough to do something memorable.

Antonio Cesaro - I wish WWE saw in Cesaro what I see in him. He's tall and muscular, something that they covet. He's freakishly strong. He's an actual wrestler. They could utitlize a him a lot. But they don't. It's perplexing. They know enough to feature him on the upcoming live NXT show, but not enough to do so on the big stage. In the Royal Rumble, I'm sure he'll get a chance to do a Big Swing, and he might last for a while - given his impressive stamina - but it'll all be for naught.

Christian - I don't even know if Christian will be back in time for Royal Rumble. Might be a surprise entrant. If so, he'll take advantage of the situation and work his butt off. That's what he does.

Damien Sandow - Any thought of Sandow stepping into the main-event was quelled when he lost his MITB cash-in attempt. And then it was demolished when they unified the two world titles. Sandow's ceiling has been set. When his career is done, 'Royal Rumble Winner' will not be on his resume.

Dean Ambrose & Seth Rollins - I think The Shield will run roughshod over the Royal Rumble this year. I honestly think it's the only reason their impending breakup hasn't occurred yet. At one point during the match, all three members of The Shield will be in the ring until someone like CM Punk comes out and eliminates them all - just like John Cena did with Nexus a few years back. It hurts comparing Cena to Punk, but that's how WWE books their babyfaces.

Kofi Kingston - OMG! That was amazing! That's all Kofi Kingston is good for each year. He'll find some incredible way to stave off elimination... only to be eliminated less than five minutes later. But whatever he does will be incredible. No doubt.

New Age Outlaws - Aside from being a target of a babyface, another cardinal rule of the Royal Rumble match that the NAO are guilty of is: Don't be nothing more than a pawn in the big chess game. The only reason they were even brought back to TV is to turn on Punk and further the Punk vs Authority storyline. Don't get me wrong, I've LOVED the hell out of seeing them again but the big picture is what matters. They aren't part of it.

Titus O'Neil - I didn't include O'Neil in the above bracket with his PTP teammate because I think he's better than Darren Young. Not necessarily as a wrestler, but in all other aspects. He's got better mic skils and far more charisma. Plus, he's a BIG MAN and I think WWE wants to push him. They just haven't figured out how to do it yet. O'Neil should play the BIG MAN role in the match before being eliminated by one of the stronger superstars.


15:1
The superstars in this bracket are close to main-event status and will be used to keep the match moving along. They will have the longest time in the match and will eliminate quite a few of the jobbers, but their chance of winning are still very slim.

Alberto Del Rio - Del Rio should be glad he won the Royal Rumble when he did. Because the time has come and gone for non-main-eventers to win Royal Rumble matches. At least he can take solace in the fact that he won the 'biggest Royal Rumble in history.' What's worse for Del Rio, is that he's having a Twitter feud with Batista about the Royal Rumble. I can only assume that feud will spill over to the show next week when Batista makes his return. The first rule of the Royal Rumble is 'don't make yourself a target.' Del Rio made himself a target and it's going to cost him.

Big E Langston - The second rule of the Royal Rumble is: Don't be a sitting champion. Intercontinental or United States or even Tag Team Champions never win the Royal Rumble. Since WWE is pushing Langston, he will be integral to the match, but not enough to truly matter. In his debut Royal Rumble match, he will have a very strong showing.

Big Show - He probably won't be in the Royal Rumble due to his match with Brock Lesnar. WWE is pushing Lesnar strong right now and there's no better way to show him as an unstoppable beast other than taking out the biggest, strongest BIG MAN on the roster. Prison rules.

Bray Wyatt - Bray gets an upgrade over his other Wyatt Family members because he's the leader. They work for him and most likely will protect him from elimination. Not to mention, he has Daniel Bryan under his purview as well. I assume that the Bray/Bryan alignment will come to a head at Royal Rumble and Bryan will most likely eliminate Bray.

Cody Rhodes - Sitting champion. Not good. But he wasn't going to win anyhow. Last year, Rhodes eliminated his brother from the Royal Rumble and I expect the opportunity will come for him to do the same this year as well. He might take the chance or Goldust make take it. However it goes down, it'll be the beginning of the end for The Brotherhood.

Dolph Ziggler - I figure he'll have an early entrance and do a lot of the labor, only for the eventual winner to take all the credit. Just like last year. Story of Ziggler's life career.

Jack Swagger - Only because Jack Swagger is a former World Champion and had the opportunity to get back to that status last year - before he fucked it all to hell - is he in this bracket, instead of the above one with his current tag team partner. Obviously, he's no threat to win to the match. But much like his partner, he has the skills and energy necessary to eat up valuable time in the match.

Mark Henry - Now that he went and got his arm "broke", he probably won't be in the Royal Rumble match. I can't make any jokes about how he's the BIGGEST (non-)THREAT to win.

Rey Mysterio - From the biggest non-threat to the smallest non-threat. Mysterio isn't as agile as he used to be, he doesn't have the resilience that he used to have. He'll most likely keep that record of 'longest time in the match' for a good while and he'll always have that Royal Rumble win under his belt. But unless another sentimental friend dies, he's not even on the short-list (no pun intended) of possible winners.

Rob Van Dam - RVD's contract allows for him to wrestle 90 days at a time before taking time off. I assume he's taking that time off in Colorado. The Road to Wrestlemania, which begins at Royal Rumble, last almost exactly 90 days. Who'd have thunk it? I'm beyond certain that RVD will be a [not-so] surprise entrant in the Royal Rumble.

Roman Reigns - Just like Big E Langston, he's being pushed by WWE and will probably rack up a few eliminations. But he's a target of CM Punk - possibly the biggest target, seeing as he's pinned Punk twice in the past few weeks. I'm sure his Shield buddies will be there to help him out - and I'm certain he'll outlast them all - but the babyface will reign (again, no pun intended) supreme in the end.

Ryback - WWE made a mistake by having Ryback lose the Royal Rumble last year to John Cena. He was at the height of his popularity and they could made him a highly marketable main-eventer. Then they made an even bigger mistake by turning him heel. In my opinion, the damage they've done to Ryback is irreparable. Just one year later and Ryback isn't even a possible threat to win the Royal Rumble. He might tally up some big eliminations though.

The Miz - The best thing WWE could possibly do for The Miz is make him an announcer and a part-time wrestler. Start him on the Jerry Lawler career plan very early in life. That's the only place that I enjoy seeing hearing him. He won't win the Royal Rumble or even come close to it, but he can still make an impact by eating some clock time.

Wade Barrett - God help me, but I think I'm starting to like this 'Bad News' Barrett gimmick. Barrett is a natural heel who oozes and inspires hatred. You put him a microphone in his hand, that look on his face otherwise known as his face and his condescending british accent and you have instant heat. It works. WWE is taking notice because they allowed him to have the last words over all the legends on Old School RAW. If the gimmick helps Barrett get over, then I'm all for it. But the bad news (pun totally intended) is that he's not going to win the Royal Rumble.


5:1
Safe bets and legitimate threats to win. If WWE decides to throw a curveball and deviate from the path seemingly laid out, it'll be one of these superstars who win the match.

Batista - WWE is basically doing everything they can to make us believe that Batista is coming back with the sole purpose of winning the Royal Rumble. I don't buy it. I don't think WWE enjoyed the bad press they got when they awarded the WWE Championship to a part-time wrestler last year and I doubt they're looking to do so again. Batista is going to play a role at Wrestlemania, but not as WWE World Champion. But you'd better bet that Batista is going to be the BAMF in the match, lasting until the end and being a very legit threat to win.

Brock Lesnar - I could ditto everything I just said about Batista and say the same about Brock Lesnar... if Lesnar was going to be in the match. I don't think he will be, but I can't say for certain. He's already earned(?) himself the #1 Contender spot after Royal Rumble, so there's no real reason for him to enter the match.

Chris Jericho - The rumors circulated about a Jericho return and they were immediately squashed. I don't know if Jericho is going to participate in the Royal Rumble, but I wouldn't be surprised if he did. I'd mark out, but I wouldn't be surprised. Jericho comes and goes so often that you never know when or if or how or why he's going to return. You just enjoy the ride.

John Cena or Randy Orton - The loser of the WWE World Championship match will only participate in the Royal Rumble if it's booked last on the card. Given how much WWE values the WWE World Title, as well as Cena & Orton, I have to figure that the Royal Rumble match will not close the PPV. It didn't do so last year with The Rock in the main-event. No reason to think it'll change now.

Sheamus - It's possible that WWE called 1800-FELLA and booked a return match for the Great White, but aside from the initial 'welcome back' pop, I can't see him doing too much in the Royal Rumble. He's a main-eventer and a BIG MAN, so he'll get some eliminations and hang around until the final entrant, but I think the Wrestlemania plans have been made already. His injury kept him out of the big picture.

The Undertaker - Expect the unexpected at the Royal Rumble, right? Nothing would be more unexpected that the return of The Deadman. Albeit, by me speculating on his return, that makes it less unexpected. But whatever. If Taker does return, you can bet it won't be for a short stint. He's going to dominate. But winning is a very longshot.

Triple H - I'm pretty certain that the current COO of WWE hasn't wrestled his last match. Wrestlemania XXX would be a great venue for a return. The Authority is running roughshod over the WWE right now and it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility for Triple H to insert himself in the match in an effort to win the WWE World Championship one more time. If so, he'll be one of the final four.


2:1
My picks. And you have no idea how happy I am to have these two as legitimate picks to win the match and headline Wrestlemania XXX.

CM Punk - The only thing CM Punk has yet to do in his illustrious career is win the Royal Rumble. It will happen. Might not be this year, but it will happen. It'd be hard to have him in a better position to win than he is right now. His back is against the wall. He has multiple targets gunning for him all in the name of The Authority and no real allies to speak of. How does that make him prime for a Royal Rumble win? Because Punk is a rebel. He's anti-authority. Anti-The Authority. One way or the other, he is going to face off with The Authority at Wrestlemania XXX. Be it against The Authority's hand-picked WWE World Champion, Randy Orton or against The Authority himself, Triple H. Winning the Royal Rumble is key if it's the former. It's not if it's the latter.

Daniel Bryan - Daniel Bryan's foray out of the WWE World Championship picture has been great for him. I was worried when WWE abruptly ended his rivalry with Randy Orton without closure. I thought they'd given up hope in him. But it turns out that they had not. Bryan took what could have been a throwaway rivalry with Bray Wyatt and The Wyatt Family and turned into a stretch of compelling television and another superstar-making performance by the best wrestler in the company. He's the very definition of 'over' right now. WWE needs to strike while the iron is hot. They can't make the same mistake they made with Ryback last year. They've already admitted that there is still a chapter to be written in the Daniel Bryan vs Randy Orton story and I can't think of a better setting than Wrestlemania XXX for the denouement.

No comments:

Post a Comment